Shoppers used to picking up the cheapest eggs at the grocery store may now be reaching for higher-end cartons.
That’s because bird flu is turbocharging prices of commercially produced eggs, while farmers of pasture-raised hens — who say their practices make for more humane, sustainable and tasty eggs — have largely held their premium prices steady. Grocery shoppers may be noticing the price gap narrow or even invert, in some cases making specialty eggs cheaper than conventional ones.
Nationwide, a dozen eggs sold for $4.95 on average in January, up from $2.52 a year earlier, as avian influenza has wiped out poultry flocks and slammed into domestic egg supplies. Through it all, specialty egg distributor Pete & Gerry’s says its dozen-egg cartons have been retailing for about $6.99 over the past 18 to 24 months.
“Our prices are extremely stable, which means our retail partners are offering a really, really stable price to consumers,” said Cameron Whitehead, chief operating officer at the New Hampshire-based company that sells eggs from nearly 300 family farms across New England, the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic.
Egg cartons come with lots of labels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture designates “cage-free” and “free-range” practices as those allowing hens to roam around to some extent indoors, and gain at least limited access to an outdoor enclosure, respectively. “Pasture-raised” eggs, which aren’t federally regulated, generally means the chickens can leave the barn and venture out to graze and scratch. The “organic” label can apply to any of these and also refers to what the chickens were fed.
Hens that have room to scamper aren’t any more resistant to bird flu than those that don’t. But farming practices can make a difference in how the illness spreads, experts say, even if there are some trade-offs.
“The source of the virus is in the wild birds, so pasture-raised birds would have an increased risk of exposure,” said Andrew Bowman, a professor of veterinary medicine at Ohio State University who studies animal influenza. Fully confined egg farms use netting to keep out wild birds, he said, but if the virus does enter those facilities, it can spread like wildfire among chickens kept in cramped quarters.
Larger operations also tend to require staff and equipment that are shared with other facilities, elevating the risk of spread between farms. But no matter the setup, USDA guidelines require the entire flock to be killed if bird flu is detected even once.
The disease has affected large and small egg producers alike, but smaller and organic operators say their prices aren’t as influenced by supply and demand swings compared with the commercial market.
So far, Pete & Gerry’s has seen minimal impact to its supply, despite the occasional farm hit by bird flu, Whitehead said. The company pays for farmers’ birds and feed, and it offers a set price for their eggs, creating a measure of stability that Whitehead said small family farms — generally those with flocks of fewer than 20,000 hens — appreciate amid the outbreak.
Larry Schultz, a longtime egg farmer in Owatonna, Minnesota, said prices for his organic, free-range eggs mainly reflect input costs like cartons and feed. Those expenses have also increased with inflation, albeit more predictably than supply and demand, he said.
When bird flu hit a larger facility in Schultz’s county in 2023, he said it felt like dodging a bullet. “It’s not like anybody is immune to it,” he cautioned.
About half of the flocks hit by bird flu since 2022 have fewer than 1,000 hens, and roughly 70% number under 30,000, according to USDA data. (The department said its bird flu data isn’t broken down by production types like “organic” or “pasture-raised.”)
Like much of the nation’s agricultural sector, the egg industry has consolidated over time. Fewer than 150 commercial egg farms with flocks of at least 75,000 now house over 95% of egg-laying hens, the United Egg Producers trade group estimates. Among large operators, at least three in Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina, each with over 250,000 hens, have been affected by bird flu so far just this year.
Organic and cage-free egg farmers produce only 15% of the nation’s eggs, UEP estimates, and many of them say they’re struggling to meet rising demand as their products become more price-competitive. But that isn’t stopping some from touting what they say is a more ethical approach to the business. Some farms and retailers have been advertising pasture-raised eggs as exempt from “price gouging” that they blame on the commercial approach.
“I think the industry probably needs to take note,” said Matt Watson, who sells eggs from his family farm in Chester, South Carolina. “Look at the pastured model and see if they could pick up anything that would help to protect our food supply.”
Watson said he embraced more sustainable farming methods in 2007 after trying conventional ones and now raises all his animals on open pasture. He’s convinced that growers, animals and consumers are all better off, though he acknowledged it usually costs more to farm this way. His eggs currently retail for around $7.25 a dozen, but he hopes the ongoing shortage spurs more consumers to take a closer look.
“It becomes more appealing to people if they’re going to pay a pretty high price for eggs anyway,” he said, adding that many customers will stick with pasture-raised for the taste once they’ve tried them.
Despite adding roughly 50 farms to its network last year, Pete & Gerry’s still isn’t able to meet demand, Whitehead said, but the specialty distributor is hardly alone. The USDA forecasts a 1.3% in table egg production from 2024 to 2025. Stocks of frozen eggs in storage plummeted about 42% late last year, which the agency said is likely because distributors tapped into those supplies to offset fresh egg losses.
There’s no easy substitute for eggs, which makes demand for them inelastic — meaning consumers and businesses generally buy the same amount no matter the cost. That’s exacerbating the price spiral, as customers bid up remaining supplies out of proportion with the shortage. The U.S. egg-hen flock is down about 50 million birds, or 15%, from its usual level, according to the American Egg Board, which represents egg farmers. Prices, however, have nearly doubled since January 2024.
Schultz said he had to raise prices recently, which he said he doesn’t do very often. One baker he sells to told NBC News last month that Schultz’s eggs are now more affordable than commercially produced ones, despite the price increase.
“All of a sudden, you look back and say, ‘Wait a minute, I’m the cheapest one on the shelf,’” Schultz said, adding that his small organic farm is seeing demand through the roof. That’s been heartening, but he isn’t interested in scaling up.
“I’m not looking to be a commercial egg grower,” he said. “I’m looking to just do what I grew up doing.”
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