One question, more than any other, swirled around the exclusive Costa Navarino resort on Wednesday evening. Could Sebastian Coe really pull it out of the fire again? At the Moscow and Los Angeles Olympics he bounced back from defeat in the 800m to take 1500m gold. Then, against the odds in Singapore in 2005, he brought the 2012 Games to London ahead of Paris and Madrid.
And now, in the final hours before Thursday’s vote for the next International Olympic Committee president, he was busy pressing flesh and securing promises in the hope of a fourth Olympic win.
Related: Coe feels ‘momentum’ but IOC presidential race remains on knife-edge
His supporters believe he can find a narrow path to victory. He has form, after all. In 2005 London won after a maximum four rounds of incredibly tense voting, beating Paris by 54 votes to 50. Yet amid the rumours, smears, and intrigue here in Greece, others pointed to a different campaign as a cautionary tale: England’s bid for the 2018 World Cup.
The night before that vote, one British journalist said of the Russian bid “they’ve thrown in the towel!” when he heard that Vladimir Putin wasn’t turning up. The next day proved a sharp and painful rejoinder. As things stand, most IOC watchers make Juan Antonio Samaranch the favourite. But no one is counting out Kirsty Coventry, who is bidding to become the first woman to lead the IOC. Or indeed Lord Coe. But the fact it is a secret ballot only adds more uncertainty and intrigue.
On the surface, everything appears cordial. The vote is being staged at the same five-star hotel where Christopher Nolan, Matt Damon and Anne Hathaway are staying while filming a version of Homer’s Odyssey. The resort has 131 infinity pools, six waterslides and a golf course designed by Bernhard Langer.
Behind the scenes, however, two candidates have been subject to an internet smear campaign with scurrilous and baseless rumours about their characters, while there is increasing disquiet that the outgoing president Thomas Bach is pushing Coventry, even though it would seem to breach the political neutrality the Olympic movement holds dear. No wonder comparisons are frequently made with a papal conclave.
Finding signal amid the noise is tricky given most voters are resolutely tight-lipped. At one point, the man from the BBC asked Princess Anne for her thoughts as she walked through the hotel. “No,” came the curt reply. Britain’s other IOC representative Hugh Robertson, who was walking with the Princess Royal, smiled at the exchange. “Nice try,” he said. Shortly afterwards Prince Albert of Monaco walked through, smiling but keeping his cards close to his chest too.
It means that not even Samaranch can be sure he will be smiling when the vote takes place at 2pm. As he sagely put it: “Everybody has the right to keep his vote confidential, and it’s very easy in this world – and when it is so close – to confuse a smile for a vote, a friendship for a vote, a nice word for a vote. So all candidates have to be very careful in making that translation.”
What makes the election even harder to predict is that the IOC is one of the world’s most exclusive private members’ clubs, with just 109 individuals and its own set of dynamics. To win, Coe will have to build a coalition from a combination of former athletes, politicians, royals, billionaires, and even an Oscar-winning actress, Michelle Yeoh – while Bach tries everything in his power to stop him winning.
Coe’s task is made even harder by the fact he clearly upset some members – including Bach – with World Athletics’ decision to ban Russia from the Rio Games, while awarding £50,000 in prize money to every Olympic track and field gold medallist in Paris was far from universally welcomed either, especially as he didn’t tell other sports in advance.
However no one in the field has a better CV than Coe. Not only is he a double Olympic champion, who ran the London 2012 Games and then became the president of World Athletics, he is a political heavyweight used to meeting senior leaders. In a discordant and uncertain world, where sport is increasingly weaponised and no one can be sure what the presidents Trump, Putin and Xi will do next, that is undoubtedly an asset.
Samaranch, however, has an even greater advantage given he is the son of the former IOC president Juan Samaranch who ran the organisation for 21 years. Samaranch Jr might reject the idea that he is a nepo baby, but undoubtedly he has access to networks and loyalties, including with China, that other candidates do not have.
Coventry, who won two swimming gold medals for Zimbabwe before becoming her country’s sports minister, cannot be ruled out – even if there is some disquiet over her role in a government that Amnesty International says has imposed “wide-scale repression of dissent, including arbitrary detention and prosecution” and where “plainclothes state agents abducted political activists, tortured them, and killed one man”.
So how might the vote go? Coventry’s hope is that Bach’s patronage allows her to win by a first- or second-round knockout by securing a majority of votes. While that isn’t completely out of the question, most onlookers believe it is unlikely and the vote will continue into the latter rounds.
The Japanese candidate Morinari Watanabe, president of the International Federation of Gymnastics, is expected to go first, followed by the Swedish‑British businessman Johan Eliasch. The French head of the UCI, David Lappartient, is forecast to be next.
Then it gets messy. Coe’s team, however, still believe that if they make the final two they can win. But soon they, and the other six candidates vying for the most powerful job in global sport, will face a moment of truth.
How the seven candidates compare
Sebastian Coe, Great Britain
The double Olympic 1,500m champion, former head of London 2012, and current president of World Athletics is widely regarded as having the most complete CV in the field. The 68-year-old is running as the change candidate after the authoritarian reign of Thomas Bach and has promised IOC members more involvement in debates and decisions. Other planks of Coe’s manifesto include protecting women’s sports and pushing more for smaller sports. Has a chance. But he also knows that Bach is doing everything in his power to stop him.
Kirsty Coventry, Zimbabwe
The 41-year-old is bidding to become the first woman and African to lead the IOC in its 131-year history and, crucially, has Bach’s backing. Whether that will be enough is unclear, but it gives her a shot even though her manifesto was widely regarded as uninspiring and her policies are essentially continuity Bach. However she has grown on the campaign trail and will have the support of many of the athletes among the IOC membership.
Johan Eliasch, Great Britain
No one expects the Swedish-born, British citizen president of the International Ski and Snowboard Federation to win. However the billionaire and former chief executive of Head has made his voice heard by insisting that sport has to do more to respond to climate change. His proposals include rotating the Winter Games among a group of permanent venues and ensuring that “only those who were born female can compete in women’s sport.”
Prince Faisal al Hussein, Jordan
Prince Faisal, the younger brother of Jordan’s King Abdullah II, has enjoyed a well-run campaign in which he has stressed that sport can be a tool for peace between east and west, and called for better safeguarding. “I grew up in a family that knows all about service,” said Faisal, who previously served in the military. He is also a big fan of the computer game World of Warships. His candidacy is likely to be sunk by the fourth round of voting.
David Lappartient, France
The 51-year-old has been president of the International Cycling Union since 2017. After overseeing a deal with Saudi Arabia for staging an Esport Olympics, with Bach’s blessing, his star was seen in the ascendancy. However the IOC president has instead chosen to throw his support behind Coventry in this election and as a result the Frenchman will struggle to get out of the early rounds.
Juan Antonio Samaranch, Spain
The 65-year-old joined the IOC at the same 2001 meeting in Moscow where his father stood down after 21 years as president. He is well connected and has links with Russia, where his father was an ambassador, and China, where there is a Samaranch museum. A former banker, Samaranch is well-regarded and charming. His manifesto talks about protecting women athletes and giving members more of a voice – but, his critics argue, why didn’t he raise these issues before?
Morinari Watanabe, Japan
The well-liked head of international gymnastics has no chance in the race. However he did come up with the most-talked about proposal of the seven candidates: staging the Olympics in five continents at the same time on a rolling 24-hour sports channel. Watanabe argues that such a proposal will add more sports and allow more and smaller cities to be Olympic hosts while meeting sustainability targets.
