If all goes well for England somewhere around half past nine on Saturday they will be preparing to clamber on to the team bus and head back to the stadium. They will have decamped back to their hotel a couple of miles away in Cardiff Bay but if they have held up their end of the bargain against Wales and it appears that Scotland could do them a favour, England are due back at the Principality Stadium just after 10pm for a possible trophy presentation.
It will be a replica trophy in Cardiff – the real thing is in Paris given France remain hot favourites – but broadcasters and sponsors want their champagne moment, come what may, and as a result England must oblige, even in an empty stadium. It means that England could be left a touch red-faced if France leave it late to put Scotland to the sword. All dressed up at the Principality with nowhere to go.
Related: England must be ruthless against Wales – and that is the blueprint for the future | Ugo Monye
It is not an ideal situation, but England are said to be relaxed about the potential for an anticlimax. They hope their fate will be clear enough that either the team bus would pull into the stadium or, if France are already cruising to the title, it would bypass the arena, and head straight into town. Cardiff on the night of a match provides plenty of opportunities for England to mark the end of their campaign.
A fork in the road then for Steve Borthwick’s squad. They will almost certainly need a bonus-point win to stay in title contention and they haven’t scored four tries in a Six Nations fixture in Cardiff since 2001. Pull it off and England can reflect on a championship of genuine progress. Four wins from five would match expectations from the Rugby Football Union hierarchy and Borthwick can look forward to the autumn – the next time he will field a full strength side – with optimism. Even if they do not end up as champions, a stylish bonus-point win expunges the sense that England are a hard team to beat, equally hard to love. Those former players who have riled the squad so much will not be quite so prompt to offer their appraisals.
It is easy to forget that England came into the championship on a run of six straight defeats against tier one opposition before the opening loss in Dublin made it seven. Digging out narrow victories over France and Scotland, followed by emphatic wins over Italy and Wales, would constitute a healthy looking upward curve. “I feel like we’ve been progressing for a little while now,” says the captain, Maro Itoje. “I feel like we’re starting to turn a corner and build.”
Defeat, however, would be a sucker punch. It would give Wales a first win in 17 matches and raise questions again over England’s ability to deliver a performance of authority when they are required to. Perhaps not quite as calamitous as the 30-3 defeat in 2013 when Stuart Lancaster’s side were chasing the grand slam, but equally deflating, and no doubt just as terminal for the hopes of a raft of would-be British & Irish Lions. Three wins from five would match last year’s record and suddenly, signs of progress are harder to find, the one-point victories look all the more fortunate. Bill Sweeney feels the heat that little bit more with his day of reckoning approaching fast.
The trouble for England is that there is a burgeoning belief in Wales. On one hand, there really shouldn’t be. They have lost 16 matches in a row, slipped to 12th in the world rankings and are staring down the barrel of a second consecutive wooden spoon. But there is belief in Wales. On Chippy Lane, they believe. At the Old Arcade on Church Street, they believe. The squad do too, based on how relaxed they were in their final training session on Friday, playing a bit of tennis, a spot of volleyball, and as the masses descend on the city centre on Saturday, they will do so with a little extra spring in their step. That is the effect Matt Sherratt has had during his brief stint as head coach. “They’ve showed an extra level of danger,” as Itoje says.
Wales are rarely more dangerous than when hosting England. With the roof on, with the national anthem still echoing around the rafters, hymns and arias, Gavin Henson tackling Mathew Tait, the regimental goat, the fireworks, the primal roar that greets kick-off. At times it can feel like a truism that everyone raises their game against England, but in moments like that it is a theory that holds water. “They are going to be absolutely up for this game, particularly against us,” says Itoje. “We need to make sure we manage that.”
England’s buzzword this week has been aggression and Itoje returned to it regularly. Borthwick has picked a bold side, selecting the Curry twins in harness to win the battle on the floor, Tom Roebuck and Elliot Daly on the wings to do so in the air, expedited Tommy Freeman’s move to midfield and recalled Marcus Smith to add extra creative spark. George Ford’s presence on the bench is both a reassuring one and a sign to how England may throw the kitchen sink at Wales if they are chasing late tries.
“It’s being aggressive with how we play,” says Itoje. “Being aggressive in the manner in which we play, but also the mindset and mentality. We are not coming here just to play pretty phases, you have to come here and play with intent. There is also an important part to be disciplined and ruthless with your decision-making.”
Ruthlessness is a non-negotiable given England need four tries but so, too, is Itoje’s clarity of thought in only his fifth match as captain. It was instructive to hear him say that while he believes he has enjoyed fine performances in Cardiff, he pinpoints the 40-24 defeat in 2021, when England lost their heads in an empty stadium, as a warning of how things can unravel: “I don’t think I gave the best of myself that day and again that goes back to decision-making. You can have all the aggression in the world but if you are not able to make rational decisions then it doesn’t really count for anything.”
If you want to know how much it counts for on Saturday, keep an eye out for which way the team bus turns.
