Christian Horner will be hoping for his first big win of the year before we even get to Sunday’s season-opening Australian Grand Prix. Lift Me Up, one of the horses he co-owns with wife Geri Halliwell-Horner, is running in the Hunters’ Chase at Cheltenham on Friday. Horner will be staying up into the wee hours in Melbourne to watch events 10,000 miles away in Gloucestershire unfold on television.
It will be a very different sort of sleepless night to the ones he endured this time 12 months ago. When the Red Bull team principal jetted out to Bahrain for the first race of 2024, he was genuinely unsure whether he would still have a job when he landed.
For six hours, as Horner made his way from London to the Gulf Kingdom – stopping, somewhat ironically, to pick up Red Bull’s motorsport adviser, Dr Helmut Marko, one of the Austrian faction which allegedly conspired to bring him down – his Formula One future hung in the air.
It felt as if the entire sporting world was waiting on the result of Red Bull GmbH’s internal investigation into allegations made against Horner by a female member of staff of controlling and coercive behaviour.
Fast forward one year, and Horner is ostensibly in a far stronger position. Not only was the 51-year-old cleared by that investigation, a subsequent appeal by the claimant was also dismissed by an independent barrister.
And while Red Bull eventually lost out to McLaren in the constructors’ championship, they did retain the drivers’ championship, amassing 10 wins over the course of the season, more than any other team.
To say that everything at Red Bull is back to normal, however, would be stretching credulity. The boos which greeted Horner at Formula One’s glitzy pre-season launch at the O2 were just one sign that it is going to take time. The question is, how much time does Horner have?
This is in many respects a crucial year both for him and for the team as they seek to put last year’s saga behind them. While on the surface things are beginning to look relatively stable once again, it does not take a huge leap to imagine how they could start to unravel should Red Bull have a shocker on the track.
Signs from pre-season testing were mixed. Red Bull were there or thereabouts pace-wise, but it was all a little messy, with technical director Pierre Waché not sounding overly thrilled by the feedback he was getting from the car and Max Verstappen ruling out a victory at this weekend’s season opener.
“I don’t think we can fight for the win already in Melbourne,” the four-time world champion told journalists last week, adding that one team, McLaren, were “clearly out in front”.
The good news for Red Bull is that Verstappen’s brilliance will always give them a chance. The Dutchman has proved himself capable of driving around the car’s balance issues before. He did it for much, if not all, of last year.
But if RB21 proves as troublesome as its predecessor, and if McLaren do start to pull away, and worse, if Red Bull fall behind Ferrari and Mercedes as well, it will be fascinating to see how long the truce that currently exists at the team holds.
Jos Verstappen, Max’s father, has been noticeably quieter in recent months. After his stunning outburst in Bahrain 12 months ago, when he triggered what amounted to an internecine war by warning that Red Bull would be “torn apart” if Horner stayed as team principal, both he and Marko appear to have decided that a calmer, more measured approach is in Max’s best interests.
Basically, the putsch failed. It also helped, of course, that Verstappen won seven of the first 10 races last season to grab what proved to be a decisive lead in the title race.
Verstappen Snr kept a far lower profile in the second half of last season and, by the end of the year, it appeared that all parties – Horner, Verstappen, Marko, Austria – were keen to put the past behind them. Paddock observers at the final race in Abu Dhabi even noted Geri Horner embracing her husband’s erstwhile tormentor on her arrival at the track. In any case, Jos is expected to dedicate much more time to his own rally ambitions this season, meaning he will be at fewer F1 races.
Whether he will stay silent if Red Bull drop dramatically down the order is another matter. Max Verstappen is under contract until 2028 but talk that he might jump ship before then – a constant refrain last year – is sure to ramp up again should that happen.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff openly courted Verstappen for much of last season, while Aston Martin, the team to which star designer Adrian Newey has decamped, is another option.
The Newey factor is fascinating. How much will Red Bull miss him? While the 66-year-old was, by his own admission, only working part-time on F1 by the end of his time at Milton Keynes, it escaped no one’s attention that Red Bull’s problems last season began almost as soon as he announced he was off. The team insist the car’s issues stemmed from long before then.
What is undeniable is that Newey was around for all 14 of Red Bull’s world championships, and their 122 wins and 282 podium finishes. They must now prove they can do it without him.
United front at Red Bull
For now, the noises coming out of Milton Keynes are that Horner and his rejigged leadership team are more motivated and aligned than ever. Horner retains the faith of Chalerm Yoovidhya, Red Bull’s Thai majority owner, while relations with Mark Mateschitz, the billionaire son of co-founder Dietrich Mateschitz, and Oliver Mintzlaff, the former RB Leipzig CEO who oversees Red Bull’s sporting projects, are also said to be far more cordial.
Red Bull Powertrains, the engine project being developed in readiness for next year’s massive rules change, is moving on apace. Red Bull are believed to have poached over 200 employees from Mercedes’ engine plant in Brixworth.
Yes, the team lost a couple of big fish last year, on top of Newey. Jonathan Wheatley, Red Bull’s long-time sporting director, will begin his new role as Sauber team principal in April, while strategy chief Will Courtenay will have to wait a little longer to begin his new role as McLaren sporting director.
But Red Bull would argue that such moves are par for the course in F1, where senior figures are constantly being traded and nicked. Wheatley, in particular, was clearly keen to move up to a team-principal role, and Red Bull believe they are better off without him.
Newey is another matter. Losing him was a major embarrassment, no two ways about it. And he could yet haunt Horner if he does have a swift impact at Aston Martin.
Unless he really can perform miracles, we are unlikely to know that until 2026 at the earliest. In fact, unless Red Bull have a complete shocker this year, it feels increasingly as if Verstappen will stay for next season at least, if only to find out how good the new car is and assess their rivals.
If he chooses to jump ship for next season, there is no guarantee that whichever team he chooses will be any more competitive than Red Bull. Mercedes have their own issues, while Aston Martin, despite having spent lavishly on new facilities and staff, are yet to prove they are capable of building a winning team.
Verstappen appears settled for now. The 27-year-old, who jetted into Melbourne earlier this week on his new Dassault Falcon 8X jet, with ‘UTL’, which stands for Unleash The Lion, stencilled on to the rear, spoke last year about the need to keep three vital “pillars” in place for him to be happy.
Gianpiero Lambiase, his race engineer, is one of those pillars. Red Bull have tied ‘GP’ to a new contract, with additional responsibilities as Red Bull’s head of racing in 2025. Marko is another. The 81-year-old remains as Red Bull motorsport advisor, albeit he does appear to have had his wings clipped since last season’s power struggle. Verstappen Snr, as mentioned already, is quietened for now.
The caveat is if Red Bull have a shocker this year; that could bring underlying tensions bubbling to the surface. At the very least, it would have Red Bull’s enemies sharpening their knives.
Horner deserves the chance to prove he can do it again. Whatever anyone’s opinion of him, he has been cleared by two investigations. And he has an incredible track record of success. But he and his team will be absolutely desperate to prove themselves again. The situation heading into 2025 may not seem as febrile as this time last year, but the stakes are still high.
