France’s stunning win against Ireland in Dublin has blown the Six Nations Championship wide open for the final weekend.
Fabien Galthie’s side are now in pole position to claim the title, if they can beat Scotland in the final round. However, England and Ireland both remain in contention with Scotland still, technically, in the running too.
Here is what each team needs to win.
France
France moved onto 16 points after securing a remarkable bonus-point against Ireland. If they were to repeat a five-point win against Scotland next Saturday, they would move onto an unassailable 21 points.
However, if they won without a bonus-point, England could match them on 20 points – but Les Bleus’ superior points difference means they would still be likely to claim the title with that being a differentiating factor, rather than head-to-head results, which would have been in England’s favour.
A defeat – or draw – against Scotland would open the door to both England and Ireland, though.
England
After beating Italy in a bonus-point win, England now need to beat Wales in the same fashion to give themselves the best possible chance of winning the tournament. If they did that, their total would be 20 points, which Ireland cannot reach and France could only reach with victory against Scotland. England will therefore be cheering on Gregor Townsend’s side.
A win against Wales without a bonus-point would take England to 19 points. That could be a high enough total to win the tournament, but Ireland are also expected to end on 19 points with a bonus-point win against Italy. Points difference would then decide the title. France could also end up on 19 points if they were to draw with Scotland and score four tries.
England play earlier in the day than France on ‘Super Saturday’ and therefore can pile the pressure on Galthie’s team.
Ireland
Ireland were favourites to claim the title – and a Grand Slam – prior to defeat at the hands of France. The best possible outcome for Ireland now is that they reach 19 points with a four-try win against Italy, and that England lose to Wales and France lose to Scotland.
Simon Easterby’s team are up first next weekend, so can put the heat on both England and France, but they are now relying on other sides slipping up.
Scotland
For Scotland to win, a miracle is required. But, nevertheless, mathematically they are still in with a shot. If Scotland were to beat France with a bonus-point next week, they would reach a total of 16 points. France are already there, but could remain on that number if no losing bonus-points were secured. Scotland would then also need to overturn the 103 points difference between themselves and Les Bleus in the process. A 52-point win would do the job.
As well as hammering France in Paris, Scotland would need Ireland to lose to Italy and England to slip up against Wales.
However, Ireland could also still reach 16 points with a draw or two losing bonus-points against Italy, as could England with a losing bonus-point.
