Florida is arguably the hottest team in the nation heading into the NCAA Tournament. That’s helped the Gators get a lot of attention in March Madness championship odds.
Long ago, savvy bettors could’ve gotten odds of +5000 (50/1) or longer on Florida, but not anymore.
Several sportsbooks are definitely upside down on Florida, needing to avoid a Gators national title.
But Caesars Sports is the exception to the rule.
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"We stayed ahead of Florida all year. We opened the Gators 30/1 and never crossed 40/1. But the cat’s out of the bag now on that team," said Rich Zanco, head of college basketball trading at Caesars.
Zanco serves up more of his insights on who the bettors want and who the book needs in the March Madness futures odds market.
Great on Gators
Zanco, a college basketball junkie along with being an oddsmaker, had a feeling Florida would be solid this season. Almost a year ago, after the 2024 Final Four, most sportsbooks opened the Gators +4000 or longer to win it all.
If you shopped around, you could’ve gotten Florida at +6000 or longer. So a $100 bet could’ve profited $6,000.
But as Zanco noted above, he opened at just +3000 and kept Florida at shorter odds than the market all season long. That strategy is going to pay off for Caesars, if the Gators go the distance.
"Now, they’re co-favorites, or close to it," Zanco said, alluding to Florida being the +380 second choice at Caesars, behind only Duke (+300). "Florida is quite a nice result for us. We do extremely well to Florida."
Legitimate contenders
Along with Florida, which is the No. 1 seed in the West Region, the other three No. 1 seeds are right there at the top of the NCAA Tournament oddsboard. As mentioned above, Duke is the favorite, then Florida, followed closely by Auburn (+475) and Houston (+600).
Then there’s a significant drop-off at Caesars, to fifth choice Alabama at +1800. Oddsmakers are big believers in the No. 1 seeds this year, and bettors are big believers in the favorite.
"From legitimate contenders, we don’t do well to Duke. But the Blue Devils’ bracket is no bargain," Zanco said, noting Arizona, Baylor and Wisconsin as potential future foes in the East Region.
Plus, there’s the issue of Duke freshman standout Cooper Flagg’s ankle injury. The Blue Devils will likely need Flagg back to make a deep run.
Florida and Auburn are among a slew of 14 SEC teams in the Tournament, a record for one conference. The Gators and Tigers, along with Alabama and Tennessee (+2000) are legit contenders, as well, which is fine with Zanco.
"We do well to the top SEC teams. We do extremely well to Tennessee and Alabama," he said, while pointing out that Houston — from the Big 12 — isn’t damaging, but also isn’t a good result. "We’re like a break-even on Houston."
Riding Dark Horses
Beyond Duke, a handful of teams are problematic in Caesars’ odds to win March Madness. The public betting masses are on a few dark horses to lift the trophy in San Antonio on April 7.
"The bettors want Oregon, they want Memphis, and for some reason, they love John Calipari and Arkansas," Zanco said. "We also don’t do well to Georgia. In more recent weeks, bettors are gravitating to Missouri and a little bit toward Kentucky — the SEC, once again."
So, while Caesars would love a title from Florida, Auburn, ‘Bama or Tennessee, the book would prefer that SEC brethren Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia stay out of the mix.
Odds are that Zanco and the risk room don’t have much to worry about. Kentucky has the shortest number of those four teams, at +5000. Then it drops way off to Missouri at +25000 (250/1), with Georgia and Arkansas both at +30000 (300/1),
Beyond those teams, Zanco noted seeing sharp money on Illinois, which can still be had for +10000 (100/1). Additionally, there’s been sharp and public play on red-hot St. John’s, which is among that second tier of teams on Caesars’ oddsboard at +3000.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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