Everyone loves March Madness and filling out their tournament bracket.
Matchups certainly matter, but history matters, too.
The teams might change, but the types of teams remain the same.
Anyway, here are some bracket and team tidbits to keep in mind when you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket.
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Picking the 1-seeds
Yes, the 1-seeds look strong. However, only once since expansion in 1985 have we seen all four 1-seeds reach the Final Four — that happened in 2008. In other words, picking all four 1-seeds to reach the Final Four isn’t the most prudent thing one can do. In 39 Final Fours since 1985, 33 times we’ve seen one or two 1-seeds make it. As mentioned, all four made it once. None made it one time, one made it 17 times, two have made it 16 times and three have made it four times.
Seeds at the Final Four since 2010
No. 1 seeds — 18
No. 2 seeds — 10
No. 3 seeds — 4
No. 4 seeds — 6
No. 5 seeds — 5
No. 7 seeds — 3
No. 8 seeds — 3
No. 9 seeds — 2
No. 10 seeds — 1
No. 11 seeds — 4
In fact, it’s not even wise to pick all 1s and 2s to reach the Elite Eight. It's never happened in the expansion era, and only once has seven of the eight top-2 seeds reached the Tournament quarterfinals. Only once in the last 14 years have all four 1-seeds reached the Elite Eight (2006), and 2007 was the last time more than two No. 2 seeds made it. In each of the last four Elite Eights — and seven of the last eight — at least two teams seeded sixth or worse have reached the quarters. Maybe chalk will win out this year, but history suggests that will not be the case.
Quick exits
Bouncing the No. 1 seeds early could get you big time points if you are right. And that's been the trend lately. From 1985 to 2009, a stretch of 25 years, a total of 13 No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Sweet 16. From 2010-24 — a span of just 14 years — that same total of 13 No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Sweet 16. Each of the last four years, and 11 of the last 14 years, has seen a 1-seed get bounced in the first or second round. You can nearly always bank on at least one double-digit seed reaching the Sweet 16. It has happened 16 straight years and in 37 of the 39 Tournaments since expansion.
Sweet 16 long shots
Want to get really crazy with the Sweet 16? Dare pick a 15-seed to knock off a 2-seed. It's happened three of the last four years, and in each instance — Princeton in 2023, Saint Peter’s in 2022 and Oral Roberts in 2021 — all went on to reach the Sweet 16. Any takers with Bryant, Omaha, Wofford or Robert Morris?
Winning as a 1
Sixteen of the last 17 national champions have either been named UConn or been a No. 1 seed. Second-seeded Villanova, in 2016, is the one team that bucked the trend. In those 17 years, UConn has won four national titles. One came as a 3-seed, one came as a 7-seed, one came as a 4-seed, and last year, the Huskies won it as a 1-seed. Twelve other 1-seeds cut down the nets in that stretch.
Not so Pearly
No. 1 overall seed Auburn has an ominous trend under head coach Bruce Pearl. All three times the Tigers have been a top-4 seed, they have failed to reach the Sweet 16, losing last year in the first round to Yale as a 4-seed, Clemson in 2018 in the second round as a 4-seed, and to Miami in 2022 in the second round as a 2-seed.
Big (Ten) winners
The 2-seed in Auburn’s region, Michigan State, will look to win the Big Ten’s first national title since the Spartans won it all in 2000. And in the seven times MSU has been a top-2 seed under Tom Izzo, the Spartans reached the Final Four five times. But there is a bit of trepidation, as MSU is 327th nationally in 3-point percentage and has emerged as a top-10 team and top-2 seed after beginning the year unranked — just like St. John’s. None of the prior 37 teams to fit this profile in the expansion era have advanced to the Final Four.
SEC season?
In addition to the Big Ten not having a national champion since 2000, it's been a while since the SEC saw one of its teams cut down the nets. The 2012 Kentucky Wildcats were the last national champions from the SEC and 2014 Kentucky was the last SEC team to reach the national title game. Prior to that, 2007 Florida was the last to do either. The SEC has been viewed as a conference for the ages this year and if one of its five top-3 seeds doesn’t cut down the nets in April, it will be seen as a massive disappointment by those in SEC country.
Streak on the line
Gonzaga will be up against it to extend its streak of consecutive Sweet 16 appearances to ten. The Bulldogs will first have to extend their first-round win streak to 16 in an 8-9 game with Georgia, and then knock off top-seed Houston in Round 2. Beating UGA in Round 1 is no lock, as the Bulldogs from Athens have wins over a 1-seed (Florida) and 2-seed (St. John’s) in this year's tourney.
Wolverine hunting
The 5-12 game between Michigan and UC San Diego is one of the more anticipated — if not the most anticipated — games of the first round. The Big Ten Tournament champions have had trouble with turning the ball over, but should have a decided advantage over the Tritons in the front court with Vladislov Goldin and Danny Wolf. The Wolverines have reached the Sweet 16 each of their last five trips to the Big Dance, but Big West teams have been pesky in recent years when avoiding being seeded below 13th. In 2021, UCSB lost to Creighton by one in a 5-12 game. UC Irvine beat K-State in 2019 as a 13-seed, Hawaii beat Cal in 2016 as a 13-seed, Irvine lost to Louisville by two in 2015 as a 13-seed, and in 2012, 12-seed Long Beach State lost by seven to New Mexico. This will be by far the most popular first-round upset pick.
Staying away
Marquette-New Mexico is a game I want no part of. Shaka Smart’s teams have consistently underperformed in the Tournament since the improbable VCU Final Four run in 2011. However, Smart and Marquette might have met their match here, as 10-seed New Mexico carries a heavy burden into the first round. Double-digit seeded Mountain West teams have lost 22 straight first-round games and are 1-24 all told. Yikes.
Ducks gonna quack
Oregon has been bet up from 5.5 to 7.5 against Liberty. Dana Altman has never lost a first-round game on the floor as the Ducks head coach (7-0) and the game will be played a short drive from Eugene in Seattle.
Oh, Tommy boy
If seeding holds, Oregon will face Arizona in Round 2. But that's not a foregone conclusion at all. Arizona has been eliminated by a team seeded at least four spots worse than the Cats in all three NCAA appearances under Tommy Lloyd, and faces an Akron team that loves to shoot the 3. Anyone having flashbacks to 2018 when the Cats — then coached by Sean Miller — lost to MAC Champion Buffalo, coached by Nate Oats, in a 4-13 game? The Bulls shot the lights out that night, going 15-for-30 from 3-point range. Is this a good time to mention Lloyd has been a favorite in all seven of his games at Arizona and has covered only one, losing three outright?
An 8-9 to watch
Oklahoma opened the year 13-0, including wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan in the non-conference. However, the Sooners went just 7-13 the rest of the way. OU’s first-round opponent is two-time defending champion Connecticut, which is 94th in KenPom’s defensive rating metric. The Huskies have 12 straight dominant NCAA tourney wins, but interestingly enough, the two times under Dan Hurley the Huskies were not a top-4 seed, they were upset in the first round — by 12-seed New Mexico State in 2022 and 10-seed Maryland in 2021.
Somethin' Bru-in
UCLA has seen some sharp play against Utah State, and for good reason. Under Mick Cronin, the Bruins have advanced to the Sweet 16 in all three tournament appearances, have a double-digit seeded Mountain West team as their opponent, play great defense and will be anxious to wash away the stench of their 86-70 Big Ten tourney loss to Wisconsin.
On the boiler seat
Purdue reached the national title game last year, but deep tourney runs haven’t been the norm lately. Prior to that, the Boilers famously became the second 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed, getting beaten by FDU in 2023, losing to 15-seed Saint Peter’s in 2022 and losing to 13-seed North Texas in 2021. Will 13-seed High Point — a team littered with juniors and seniors that has one of the best offenses in the country — make Purdue’s stay a short one? Purdue allows opponents to shoot 56.4% from 2-point range and High Point has lost five games this year, four coming by four points or fewer. At worst, this is gonna be a high-scoring game.
No Jayhawk chalk
Each of the past five times Kansas was not a No. 1 seed, it lost in the second round. The Jayhawks will have to upset Arkansas to get a chance at snapping that streak against most likely St. John’s, which is seeking its first NCAA Tournament win since 2000.
It's been a while
Speaking of St. John's, 163 different teams have won a game in the Round of 64 since St. John’s last did, back in 2000. Among the more notable teams on that list — Abilene Christian, Cleveland State, Cornell, Duquesne, Fairleigh Dickinson, FAU, Florida Gulf Coast, Furman, Georgia State, Grand Canyon, Hampton, Harvard, La Salle, Little Rock, Loyola-Chicago, Manhattan, Mercer, Montana, Morehead State, Norfolk State, North Dakota State, Oakland, Oral Roberts, Pacific, Rutgers, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, UC Irvine, UMBC, Vermont, Winthrop and Wofford.
Those tricky 5-12 games
Colorado State, a 12-seed, is favored over potentially shorthanded and fifth-seeded Memphis. It’s the first time since 2017 that a 12-seed is favored over a 5-seed, when Middle Tennessee went off as a 1.5-point favorite over Minnesota and won 81-72. All told, seven times has a 12-seed been favored over a 5-seed, and 12s won four of the seven outright.
And, those tricky 4-13 games
It’s not a bad idea to take the 13-seeds over the 4-seeds in your bracket, plus the points and on the moneyline. Since 2018, 13-seeds have won seven of the 24 games vs. 4-seeds, including three times as a ‘dog of at least 9.5 points and five times as a ’dog of at least seven points. Seven of the 17 wins by 4-seeds came by four points or fewer, putting the ATS mark of 13-seeds vs. 4-seeds since 2018 at a very profitable 16-8. This year's 4-13 games: Texas A&M vs. Yale, Arizona vs. Akron, Maryland vs. Grand Canyon and Purdue vs. High Point.
Time to make a Big statement
Since 2021, 31 Big Ten teams have reached the NCAA Tournament, including 12 that were top-4 seeds. Just six of those 31 reached the Sweet 16.
Bear-rier in the road
Since winning the national title in 2021, Baylor hasn’t made it past the first weekend despite being a 1-, 3- and 3-seed. The Bears have lost in the second round all three years. Baylor will potentially have a chance to break this trend and upset Duke in the second round if it can get past Mississippi State.
Not so sweet memories
Saint Mary’s reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed in 2010, but has failed to reach that point again in its last seven NCAA Tournament trips. SMC’s three wins in the Round of 64 in that span all came as the higher seed and the Gaels covered the number before getting blown out in the second round by the higher-seeded opponent.
Yale and scream!
Yale will look to pull off a 13-over-4 upset for the second straight year. If Yale is successful, it will become the first team to win a game in consecutive years as a 13-seed or worse. The Ivy League champ has won three games in the last two years, with Princeton reaching the Sweet 16 in 2023.
Raaaaaiders
Texas Tech has more than met its expectations when seeded third or better. The Red Raiders have been a 3-seed four times and have never failed to reach the Sweet 16 in any instance, reaching the Sweet 16 in 1996, the Elite Eight in 2018, the national title game in 2019 and the Sweet 16 in 2022. In five of those games, Tech was an underdog who won outright.
The Bearded one
Let’s call this my ode to Chris Beard section. The former Texas Tech, Texas and now Ole Miss coach has been an ATM in the NCAA Tournament. Beard’s teams have never lost a round of 64 game, covering four of the five wins. In addition, they are 10-6 ATS in all 16 games with five outright wins from nine games as a 'dog. Beard will now try and get Ole Miss, which has five NCAA Tournament wins in its history, to win a game in the Round of 64 or later for the first time since 2013. Those five wins all-time for Ole Miss just happen to be the same number of wins Beard had in his 2019 run to the national title game at Texas Tech.
Kentucky's wild ways
Each of Kentucky’s last seven NCAA tourney games has been decided by single digits, including losses to 15-seed Saint Peter's as an 18.5-point favorite and 14-seed Oakland as a 13.5-point favorite.
Mc-Redemption
McNeese State was a popular upset pick last year as a 6.5-point underdog in a 12-5 game vs. Gonzaga. McNeese lost 86-65 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Can it fare better this year vs. Clemson in another 12-5 game as a 7.5-point underdog? In what might be a future conference opponent for Will Wade, who is rumored to be in the mix for the NC State coaching job?
Lucky No. 11
Taking 11-seeds on the moneyline or an alternate spread is a good idea. In the last four years, 11-seeds have won nine of the 16 games outright, with seven of those nine coming by at least 11 points. This year's 6-11 games will feature Ole Miss vs. North Carolina, Missouri vs. Drake, BYU vs. VCU and Illinois vs. Texas or Xavier.
Love for the at-large
Worried about backing a team like Oklahoma which had a losing conference record? Don’t let that deter you. Since 2018, 14 teams have received an at-large bid despite being sub-.500 in conference play. Nine of those 14 not only covered, but also won their Round of 64 game.
Well, that’s all we got for now.
Happy Bracket Bustin!
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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