One of the most maddening parts of March Madness is predicting where the upsets will happen.
Everyone knows they’re coming. Fans examine their brackets looking for double-digit seeds to become the next Cinderella team. But with just a one-in-9 quintillion chance of filling out a perfect bracket, it’s practically impossible to nail every pick.
Double-digit seeds are the biggest culprits of busting brackets. Which ones are most likely to pull off first-round upsets?
Here’s a look at first-round upsets by seeding matchup since the tournament field expanded in 1985:
How often do No. 16 seeds upset No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
It’s the upset of all upsets, and it’s happened just twice.
University of Maryland, Baltimore County pulled off one of the most shocking results in NCAA Tournament history when it beat No. 1 Virginia as a No. 16 seed in the 2018 first round. The score was knotted at 21-21 at halftime, but the Retrievers went off in the second half on their way to a historic 74-54 victory.
Fairleigh Dickinson joined rarified air with its 2023 upset over top-seeded Purdue. Naismith National Player of the Year Zach Edey and the No. 1 Boilermakers were among the favorites to win it all, but it was the Knights that pulled off a 63-58 stunner.
UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson are the only No. 16 seeds to ever beat a No. 1 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Entering the 2025 tournament, No. 1 seeds are 154-2 all-time against No. 16 seeds.
How often do No. 15 seeds upset No. 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
Only 11 No. 15 seeds have ever reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. From 1985 to 2024, No. 2 seeds were 145-11 against No. 15 seeds.
2012 is the only year to feature two No. 15-No. 2 upsets, as Lehigh shocked Duke and Norfolk State knocked out Missouri. A No. 15 seed had beaten a No. 2 seed in three straight tournaments -- Oral Roberts over Ohio State in 2021, Saint Peter’s over Kentucky in 2022 and Princeton over Arizona in 2023 -- before going 0-4 in 2024.
How often do No. 14 seeds upset No. 3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
Twice as many No. 14 seeds have advanced to the second round than No. 15 seeds.
No. 14 seeds are 23-133 against No. 3 seeds in the first round. Two such upsets have happened in the same tournament three times, and a No. 14 seed has won a first-round game in 20 of 39 tournaments since 1985.
Oakland (Michigan) is the last No. 14 seed to pull off the feat, doing so against John Calipari's Kentucky in the 2024 tournament.
How often do No. 13 seeds upset No. 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
No. 13 seeds are a bit more likely to advance than No. 14 seeds, as they are 33-123 all-time against No. 4 seeds since 1985.
From 2018-2021, No. 13 seeds had almost a 50-50 chance of winning, going 5-7 against No. 4 seeds. After zero such upsets in 2022, Furman got past Virginia in 2023 and Yale stunned Auburn in 2024.
How often do No. 12 seeds upset No. 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
We’re now entering the section of the first round where “upset” is more of a loose term.
No. 12 seeds have a 55-101 record against No. 5 seeds since 1985, good for a .353 winning percentage. In that stretch, all four No. 5 seeds moved on in the same tournament just six times.
Four No. 12 seeds have never advanced in the same tournament, but they’ve come close. Three No. 12 seeds beat No. 5 seeds in 2013, 2014 and 2019.
What’s the record for the most points scored in a March Madness game? Here’s a look at the best individual scoring performances in NCAA Tournament history.
How often do No. 11 seeds upset No. 6 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
No. 11 seeds are only slightly more likely to advance than No. 12 seeds all-time, but they are on a hot streak over the last five tournaments.
No. 11 seeds are 61-95 (.391 winning percentage) against No. 6 seeds since 1985. Since 2016, No. 11 seeds are actually more likely to win their opening games than No. 6 seeds, though, going 18-14 over that stretch. Going back even further, at least one No. 11 seed has upset a No. 6 in every tournament since 2005.
The 1989 tournament is the only one where all four No. 11 seeds won their matchups against No. 6 seeds.
How often do No. 10 seeds upset No. 7 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
No. 10 seeds have beaten No. 7 seeds nearly 40% of the time, going 60-95 since 1985. No. 7 Oregon’s advancement past No. 10 VCU in 2021 occurred due to COVID-19 protocols and had a no-contest designation.
Like No. 11 seeds, all four No. 10 seeds have advanced in the same tournament just one time (1999). On the flip side, No. 7 seeds have swept No. 10 seeds in just two tournaments (1993 and 2007.)
How often do No. 9 seeds upset No. 8 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
When it comes to No. 9 seeds against No. 8 seeds, it’s almost a complete toss-up with a slight advantage for the “underdogs.”
From 1985 to 2024, No. 9 seeds went 81-75 against No. 8 seeds. Recent history has been more favorable for No. 9 seeds, as well, with those teams going 20-12 in first-round games since 2016.
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article was published in March 2022.
