What Saquon Barkley did in Philadelphia last season has been hailed as the revival of the running back in the NFL. He got a market-busting contract from the Eagles, then went out and proved he was worth every penny, leading them to a Super Bowl championship and winning NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
He wasn't the only running back to reward the team that believed in him. Derrick Henry was outstanding for the Ravens after signing as a free agent last March. Josh Jacobs was nearly as good in his first year in Green Bay, too.
Their hope is that they offered proof that running backs, after being devalued in the NFL for years, were worth a hefty investment. They're convinced they showed that despite the risks involved, the good ones deserved to be paid.
But the truth is, they might not have reset the market as much as NFL running backs would like to believe.
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"That's a tough question," Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said at the NFL scouting combine this week. "The running backs are kind of like the stock market. They've been up. When I was a kid, running back was arguably the most important position on the field. Then we went through this period over the last five, 10 years, where the analytics certainly de-emphasized the position.
"I think last year, you saw the impact that some of these guys had. I think they're looked at as probably replaceable by some people, but if you have a great one, you've got a historic one, you just can't replace those guys."
That's true, and it's also the problem facing the next wave of free agents at the position. They may be ready to capitalize on the movement Barkley, Henry and Jacobs started, but the reality is that none of them are in the same class. Barkley (2,005 rushing yards), Henry (1,921) and Jacobs (1,329) were all in the Top 6 in rushing last season, all were named to the Pro Bowl, and all got votes for the Offensive Player of the Year award that Barkley won.
Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb headline this year's free-agent running back class. The latter three come with injury issues, and Jones was the only one to finish in the Top 10 in rushing last season (1,138). Harris, who has topped 1,000 yards in each of his first four years in the NFL, is probably the best and most durable of the bunch. But nobody puts the Steelers workhorse in the Barkley-Henry-Jacobs class.
"I think last year was a unique free-agent class with running backs where they had some really good players that were available," said Commanders GM Adam Peters. "I think they were probably devalued a little bit too much (before last year), and I think it'll even out and kind of go back to where it should be.
"But I think last year was a little bit of an anomaly just because of how good the talent was in the free agent class."
"It's their unfortunate reality ," added one NFC general manager. "It doesn't matter what you think about the value of running backs. There's no Barkley. There's no Henry. There is no comparable talent or depth to the class we saw last year. So there's not going to be the same kind of money, either."
The class of 2024 was definitely an historic free-agent running back class. And it wasn't just because of the Top 3, either. Barkley (three years, $37.5 million), Jacobs (four years, $48 million) and Henry (two years, $16 million) were the headliners, but money went to Jones (one year, $7 million), Tony Pollard (three years, $21.75 million), D'Andre Swift (three years, $24 million), and Devin Singletary (three years, $16.5 million), too. Only Barkley and Jacobs got over $10 million annually, but there's no doubt their deals helped lift the rest of the class up.
There is serious doubt about whether they can do it again, one year later, for a class that isn't nearly as good.
[Related: Top 10 2025 NFL free-agent RBs: Did Saquon, Henry change the market?]
"The market is what it is," said Bills GM Brandon Beane. "Sometimes you buy a house and the market goes down. Sometimes you buy a house and you sell it three years later and you made a couple hundred thousand. It's the same way."
So what will the running back market look like when free agency opens in mid-March? Here's a brief look at the backs at the head of the class and the value and issues they'll bring to the table when negotiations begin:
Najee Harris, Steelers: He is easily the best of the bunch and the most likely to warrant receiving the money in the Barkley-Jacobs range. The 6-1, 242-pounder will only be 27 when the market opens and he's never missed a game in his four-year career. He's also topped 1,000 rushing yards every season and ranks fifth in total yards in that span, and he's an underrated receiver (he had 74 catches as a rookie and has averaged 45 per season). His bruising style is more like Henry than Barkley, but a contending team with a strong offensive line could easily view him as a Barkley-like missing piece.
Contract projection: 3 years, $36 million, $21 million guaranteed.
Aaron Jones, Vikings: He was the victim of a crowded market last year, and the fact that he was late to the party after he refused to take a pay cut in Green Bay. He ended up with just a one-year, $7 million deal in Minnesota, but he over-performed that with a career high 1,138 rushing yards. He caught 51 passes for 408 yards. Most importantly, though, he played in every game and stayed relatively healthy. Unfortunately for him, it was just the third time in eight NFL seasons that he started every game. That history, and the fact that he's 30 years old, might drag down his market again. But few other running backs on this year's market would be worth the risk.
Contract projection: 2 years, $15 million, $8 million guaranteed.
J.K. Dobbins, Chargers: The 26-year-old finally started to live up to all his promise last season, in his first year with the Chargers, rushing for a career-high 905 yards and nine touchdowns. But he also missed four games with a knee injury late in the season. That was a reminder of how knee and Achilles injuries had limited him to just nine games over the previous two years. The 5-10, 215-pounder is loaded with talent and has only had 488 touches in his four-year career, so there's plenty of upside. But that injury history is so alarming, he's not going to get a lot of guaranteed money.
Contract projection: 2 years, $9.5 million, $4 million guaranteed.
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys: His first season as the main back in Dallas was OK (1,079 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns). But his value showed a lot more later in the season. In his first nine games, he averaged 10.3 carries and 44.7 yards. But in his final seven games, when the Cowboys decided to lean more on their rushing attack — and trust Dowdle more — he averaged 20.3 carries for 96.7 yards. If he had been given the ball regularly, he might have finished in the Top 5 in rushing yards. So that's his argument, but will any team buy it? Maybe, because of the thin market. He'll only be 27 in June and hasn't taken a lot of hits (just 387 career touches). But teams will probably want to make sure he can handle a full load over a full season, which will limit his guarantees.
Contract projection: 2 years, $13 million, $5 million guaranteed.
Nick Chubb, Browns: It says a ton about the lack of depth in this market that Chubb would rank this high on any list given that he's played just 10 games and rushed for 502 yards over the last two seasons. His return from a devastating knee injury was a great story, but he still only played eight games and ran for 332 yards (on just 3.3 yards per carry) in 2024. Some think another offseason is all he needs to recapture his old from when, from 2019-22, he averaged 1,336 yards per season (despite missing seven games in that span). He's 29, though, so the risk is real that he'll either get hurt again or never be what he once was. Given where the market has gone, that injury last season cost Chubb a ton of money.
Contract projection: 1 year, $5 million, $3 million guaranteed.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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