The MVP of the NFL has been reserved for players in two buckets: a quarterback whose team is the first or second seed in the playoff bracket or a running back who has had a historic season when there isn’t a quarterback who is MVP-worthy.
This award also tends to be less about value and more about play on the field, which I’d argue is what the award should be.
Finally, when choosing players to win this award, you do have to factor in politics. Did voters last season want Lamar Jackson to win a third MVP when Josh Allen was an available option?
All of that matters here.
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With that, here are my best bets for NFL MVP at the conclusion of next season.
Hurts is now a Super Bowl champion and whatever doubts people had about the quarterback will disappear.
He’s outplayed Patrick Mahomes in both Super Bowl appearances and his Eagles squad won Super Bowl LIX so convincingly that voters of the award will evaluate Hurts in a more positive light than they did before.
This Philly squad will again be one of the top seeds in the NFC, and with Hurts' rushing production, he’s able to produce more touchdowns and overall yards. Remember, Hurts was neck-and-neck with Mahomes in 2022 for the MVP before an injury took away his final games of the season.
For his place in the NFL and the success that his team will have, Hurts is awesome value at +1700.
PICK: Jalen Hurts (+1700) to win 2025-26 MVP
Mahomes' passing numbers have continued to trend downward. He threw for 5,250 yards in 2022 when he won the MVP. In 2023, Mahomes threw for 4,183 yards. Last season, it was below 4,000.
These numbers are a by-product of two correlated things.
The first is that defenses are playing more two-high zone coverage and Mahomes is just taking what the defense gives him. His air yards per attempt and per completion were low — some of the lowest in the NFL — but the Chiefs offense was still functional.
The second is the lack of weapons at receiver for the Chiefs over the last two seasons. Rashee Rice was drafted in 2023, played well into the postseason and emerged into 2024 as the leading receiver. He had 29 targets and 24 catches before a knee injury in Week 4 ended his season. The Chiefs turned to another rookie at receiver in Xavier Worthy, as Rice and Hollywood Brown were both on injured reserve. It was a tough season for Mahomes to move the ball through the air, until Brown returned to the lineup and Worthy improved.
Worthy will enter his second season as a legit receiving threat. Rice will be back from injury, although he will be suspended for some part of the season. Travis Kelce appears to be back. The Chiefs will add more receivers in the draft and free agency, plus possibly a running back to help in the screen game.
Finally, I like to wager on Mahomes when he feels like he’s got something to prove. After the Super Bowl loss, this Chiefs offense will have to change a bit and Mahomes will be motivated to have a different finish to next season.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes (+750) to win 2025-26 MVP
MVP long shots
We all see the posts from sportsbook social media accounts between now and the start of the season.
"Someone wagered $100 on Player X at +9000 to win the MVP," is what they'll say.
And I’m here to tell you that it’s OK to laugh at that wager because these long-shot MVP options do not win. You’re throwing your money away. I do not care about the perceived value.
The value is buying a ticket on a player who’s got a chance to win. That’s it.
Your list should just include the top quarterbacks in the league on the best teams. Period.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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