Club Brugge v Aston Villa
Villa produced probably their worst performance of the season in losing the meeting of the sides in the group stage, Brugge winning 1-0 with a penalty awarded after Tyrone Mings, not realising a dead ball had been taken, picked up the ball. Villa may be grateful for that: had they taken a point from that game they would have been facing Bayern in the last 16. That said, as domestic form has stagnated, the victory over Bayern, a repeat of the scoreline from the 1982 European Cup final, probably represents the high point of their season so far. Domestically this hasn’t been a great campaign for Brugge either. They lie eight points behind Racing Genk but for them too the Champions League has provided salvation. They sneaked into the playoff with three wins but then were much the better side against Atalanta, winning home and away.
Verdict: Narrow Aston Villa win
Related: Liverpool face PSG as Champions League last-16 draw sets up Madrid derby
Borussia Dortmund v Lille
Lille were perhaps the biggest surprise of the league stage, beating Atlético and Real Madrid and hammering Feyenoord as they finished seventh. Canada’s Jonathan David, who scored six times, is clearly a dangerous front man but a lack of creativity may hold them back; there is a reason why they are fifth in Ligue 1, having scored eight goals fewer than any side above them. This has been a difficult season for Dortmund, who are 11th in the Bundesliga. Nuri Sahin was sacked after four straight defeats after the winter break and, while three wins in seven under Niko Kovac isn’t a startling uptick, the Guinean centre-forward Serhou Guirassy has hit form and that run did include an impressive 3-0 win at Sporting in the playoffs – albeit Sporting are not the side they were before the departure of Ruben Amorim.
Verdict: Narrow Lille win
Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid lie one point and one position above Atlético in La Liga, and both league meetings this season finished 1-1, so it should be tight – although on all five previous occasions they have met in European competition, Real Madrid have come out on top. Atlético were the form team in Europe until last month’s defeat at Leganés, having won 15 in a row, a run that enabled them to surge back after two early defeats to qualify fifth in the league phase. Even though results have dipped slightly over the past month, they have lost only one of their past 23, as Diego Simeone continues to defy convention. As Kylian Mbappé demonstrated with his hat-trick against Manchester City on Wednesday, he is finally beginning to settle at Madrid, but this remains a battle between a team based on discipline and organisation and one reliant on the inspiration of brilliant individuals.
Verdict: Narrow Real Madrid win
Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen
The sides drew 1-1 in Munich in September before a goalless draw at the BayArena last week, a game in which Leverkusen looked much the better side and hit the woodwork twice. Bayern are eight points clear at the top of the Bundesliga but doubts remain about Vincent Kompany, largely because of performances in Europe. They lost to Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord in the group stage, and squeaked through their playoff against Celtic only with an injury-time winner after a performance in which they looked worryingly slow and mannered. Following last season’s undefeated Bundesliga success was always going to be difficult for Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen side, but while they have probably drawn too many games, they have lost only once in the league. Group-stage results were a mixed bag: Leverkusen were the only side to beat Inter, but they lost at Atlético and were well beaten at Liverpool. Florian Wirtz’s recent form could be decisive.
Verdict: Narrow Leverkusen win
PSV v Arsenal
Defensively, Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League, and only Inter conceded fewer in the league stage, but they had goalscoring issues even before their front three went down with hamstring injuries. Inter were the only team to beat them in the league stage and they have lost only twice in the Premier League. Given Mikel Arteta’s emphasis on control, two-leg ties may suit them, but set plays and Mikel Merino may not be sufficient sources of goals. Peter Bosz’s side lost to Juventus in the league phase, then lost to them again in the first leg of their playoff, but victory in the second leg saw them through after extra time. Second in the Eredivisie, PSV are a typical Bosz side, full of goals and leaky at the back. When the sides met in last season’s group, they drew in Eindhoven but Arsenal were 4-0 winners at the Emirates.
Verdict: Comfortable Arsenal win
Feyenoord v Inter
Six wins, a draw at Manchester City and only one defeat, by Leverkusen, saw Inter navigate the group stage with comfort. Most impressive was their defensive record: one goal conceded in those eight games, although they have been less stingy in Serie A. Lautaro Martínez, meanwhile, continues to be a forward who divides opinion, somehow simultaneously prolific and profligate. Feyenoord, fourth in the Eredivisie, sacked Brian Priske last week and are yet to appoint a full-time replacement. Their group stage was erratic: they came from 3-0 down to draw with Manchester City, won at Benfica, beat Bayern 3-0 and yet also went down 6-1 at Lille. Most confusingly, their playoff win over Milan, under the interim Pascal Bosschaart, was based on containment. Much will depend on the battle of the Inter wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Di Marco and Feyenoord’s wide forwards Anis Moussa and Igor Paixão.
Verdict: Comfortable Inter win
PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal
Real Madrid v Atlético
Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool
Club Brugge v Aston Villa
Benfica v Barcelona
Borussia Dortmund v Lille
Bayern Munich v Leverkusen
Feyenoord v Inter
Bracket is in order after home/away fixtures were drawn; so winner of PSV v Arsenal will be at home first in quarter-final against Real or Atlético, and so on.
Ties take place on 4/5 & 11/12 March.
Quarter finals take place on 8/9 & 15/16 April.
Semi finals take place on 29/30 April & 6/7 May.
Final: 31 May (Allianz Arena, Munich).
Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool
Top of the Premier League, Liverpool also topped the Champions League group, but they are not playing as well as they were when they outplayed Real Madrid in November. They have failed to win seven of their past 14 games and, while it’s true that none of their three defeats in that spell were particularly consequential, it’s also true that league form has become scratchier, most notably in the second half of Sunday’s weirdly anxious win over Wolves. Obliterating French sides has rarely been a problem for Paris Saint-Germain, so it was no great surprise when they thrashed Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the playoffs. And while it was a struggle to get there, after one victory from their first five ties, PSG have won their past five Champions League games, a run that includes the 4-2 demolition of Manchester City. This new celebrity-free PSG may be finding their feet.
Verdict: Narrow PSG win
Barcelona v Benfica
Their meeting last month produced arguably the tie of the league stage as Barcelona won 5-4, a game that highlighted the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both sides. No team scored more in the league phase, but no side in the top half conceded more than Barcelona, who would have finished top had they beaten rather than drawn with Atalanta on the final day. A run of four wins after four without a win has taken them back to the top of La Liga. Benfica have a similar energy: under Bruno Lage they’re a much breezier side than his Wolves ever were, with goals throughout the side. Even the second leg of their playoff against Monaco, as they protected a 1-0 lead, ended up as a 3-3 nerve-shredder. Ángel Di María, whose capacity to orchestrate breaks remains supreme despite his loss of pace, should be back from hamstring problems to play.
Verdict: Narrow Barcelona win
