Southampton’s relegation from the Premier League was confirmed on Sunday, with a record seven games remaining. Wolves beat Ipswich, so there is now a 12-point gap between the bottom three and the rest: Ipswich and Leicester look doomed.
The gap at the top, meanwhile, remains a seemingly unassailable 11 points. Leaders Liverpool lost at Fulham but, with Arsenal only drawing at Everton, it didn’t really matter.
In terms of the league, all that really remains to be decided is who finishes in the top five and so qualifies for the Champions League.
That may not be the stuff of legend, but it’s not nothing. The race for a spot in European competition has provided plenty of drama in the past, notably in 2004 when Chelsea beat Liverpool on the final day to qualify for the Champions League; the following month they were bought by Roman Abramovich. But for Jesper Grønkjær’s winner that day, the course of their history might have been very different.
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While that was all hugely dramatic; the current race may not be. Perhaps it’s all building to a head, but the sides in fourth and fifth both had tricky away games on Sunday: Manchester City at Manchester United and Chelsea at Brentford. Both drew them 0-0. There are tense, thrilling 0-0s, fraught with anxiety and drama; these were not. The Manchester derby, in particular, was as uneventful as that fixture can ever have been, neither side willing to risk anything, and both sides happy to walk away with a point. With almost two months of the season still to play, there is an awful sense of the campaign already being as good as over.
This had many of the makings of a great season; it’s just that somehow the timing has been off. All the traditional big sides are flawed. Manchester United and Tottenham are so bad that it’s not entirely clear they still belong in the “big side” category. A lot of the middle tier – Brighton, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth – have had at least spells when they have played superbly. Nottingham Forest have hit a level almost nobody thought possible. The problem is that this is looking like being the worst bottom three in history (in part as a result of the elevation of the middle tier).
At the same time, Liverpool, often apparently playing within themselves, have been by far the best and most consistent side, denying the league a title race. Though, even they have not been at their best for a couple of months. Fatigue seems to have taken hold and, had Arsenal not frittered away so many cheap points, there might yet have been a climactic chase. As it is, Liverpool’s exceptional form of the autumn and winter will almost certainly prove to have been enough. Which doesn’t really matter for anything other than the present sense of drift; points are points whenever you win then.
The FA Cup and European tournaments themselves still have their intrigue but otherwise all that remains is that race for qualification for the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. Liverpool are already assured of qualification. Realistically, so too are Arsenal. After that, it becomes much tighter, with Forest, City, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Newcastle in effect contesting the three remaining slots (Assuming England do secure a fifth Champions League qualifying place, which is all but certain).
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Forest have won only four of their last nine league games, although they had won three in a row before Saturday’s narrow defeat to Villa, a sequence that included a win over City. They do, though, have a five-point lead over City while their run-in is not hugely intimidating before a possible final-day showdown at home to Chelsea, who have won only five of their last 15. As Cole Palmer’s form has deserted him so too have Chelsea dipped, although there is some positivity in the fact that Nicolas Jackson was fit enough to play the second half on Sunday.
City have emerged from their pre-Christmas slough, but they have still only won three of their last eight in the league. What was noticeable at United was just how lacking in confidence and verve they are. Passing sequences that used to zip almost automatically across the pitch are now ponderous and leaden.
Buoyed up by their January signings, Villa are in their best form of the season, having won their last seven, although there is a risk that their Champions League quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain is a distraction. Then there’s Newcastle, who will move level on points with Chelsea if they beat Leicester on Monday night, and would still have a game in hand. They too have won only four of their last eight in the league, although that is partly explained by the emotional upheaval of winning the Carabao Cup.
Win their other game in hand, and they would be just a point behind Forest, which means there is a very real possibility at least one of Chelsea and City miss out on the Champions League. And that would have serious ramifications not only for Europe next season but also for future PSR calculations.
That may not sound like the thrilling finale the Premier League would have hoped for, but it’s what it’s got. And it does matter.
On this day…
Over the past decade, it’s become almost commonplace for teams to give up three-goal leads in the second leg of Champions League ties, but until 7 April 2004, it had never happened at all. Milan, the holders, had beaten Deportivo La Coruña 4-1 in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final. The tie seemed done, although there was the oddity that all four Milan goals had come in an eight-minute burst either side of half-time. That aside, Depor had played reasonably well, even taking the lead through Walter Pandiani after 11 minutes.
They took the lead in the second leg as well, with Pandiani turning sharply on the edge of the box and firing a low shot just inside the post. When Juan Carlos Valerón headed a second 10 minutes before half-time, something remarkable suddenly seemed possible. When Albert Luque latched on to a long clearance to make it 3-0 just before half-time, Depor had an away goals lead. A deflected Fran effort made it 5-4 on aggregate in the second half. Depor would go on to lose to José Mourinho’s Porto in the semi, while the following season Milan would reach the Champions League final, when they let another three-goal lead slip as they lost to Liverpool.
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This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition.
