WHO is Bolton Wanderers’ number one goalkeeper?
When Luke Southwood was signed to provide competition to Nathan Baxter last summer, it was hoped the rivalry could spur two pedigree players on to greater heights.
It is widely accepted that Baxter’s wrist injury at the start of 2024 was one of the contributing factors to the inconsistent form which eventually led to missing out on automatic promotion.
Bringing in a back-up, Joel Coleman, who had played very little football in the previous couple of years and had only been used sparingly in the matchday squad by previous boss Ian Evatt, proved a gamble that did not pay off.
Southwood had been a regular starter at Cheltenham Town, earned international recognition with Northern Ireland, and looked a solid addition when he came to the club on a free transfer.
But with football shared out roughly equally between the two keepers, there is an argument to suggest that neither has prospered. And the numbers behind each player’s season hint at the inconsistency that has been experienced by the team as a whole.
Baxter was brought back into the starting line-up for the first time in 11 league games last weekend against Stockport County and spoke after the game about his desire to stay with the club with his contract due to expire this summer.
The 26-year-old had been branded the “best goalkeeper in League One” by Ian Evatt yet has found himself on the backfoot through much of the second half of the season.
Steven Schumacher said he had reviewed some data which gave him a “gut feeling” to go with Baxter against County – and debate between Bolton supporters generally agrees that each goalkeeper has his strengths and weaknesses.
We took a look at some of the numbers behind Baxter and Southwood’s season to help guess who could hold down the position during the run-in.
MINUTES ON THE PITCH
Counting league games only, Nathan Baxter has started 19 games and Luke Southwood has started 18 games, equating to 1,710 minutes and 1,620 minutes respectively.
Baxter has added another three cup appearances and Southwood has added five, with Luke Hutchinson also filling in for one Vertu Trophy game against Aston Villa’s Under-21s.
Luke Southwood was brought in to challenge Nathan Baxter from Cheltenham Town (Image: CameraSport - Andrew Kearns)
GOALS CONCEDED
Baxter has conceded 30 goals at a rate of 1.58 per 90 minutes, whereas Southwood has conceded 25 at a rate of 1.39 per 90.
With the cup competitions added on top, Baxter’s total increases to 34 goals at a rate of 1.54 per game, and Southwood’s goes up to 34 at an average of 1.48 per 90.
SAVES MADE
Counting only League One games, for which we have all the data, Baxter has been the busier of the two goalkeepers with 58 saves made compared to Southwood’s 34.
Opposition teams have managed 84 shots on target against Baxter and 55 on Southwood, from which you can work out a save percentage – giving Baxter 65.91 per cent, according to Opta Stats, and Southwood a 57.63 percentage.
Baxter ranks 21st out of 36 goalkeepers who have started 10 games or more in League One on that front. Southwood is ranked 31st – propped up only by Shrewsbury Town’s Toby Savin, Lincoln’s Zach Jeacock, Leyton Orient’s Zach Hemming and Wrexham’s Mark Howard.
In terms of where the saves are being made, Whoscored.com ranks Baxter 20th out of keepers who have started 10 games or more for saves-per-game in the six-yard box, fifth for inside the penalty box and 12th for outside the penalty box.
Southwood is 23rd in the list for saves in the six-yard box, 30th from inside the penalty box and 20th from outside the penalty box.
Nathan Baxter was number one for most of last season at Wanderers (Image: CameraSport - Andrew Kearns)
GOALS PREVENTED
Opta produce a metric called xGOT (Expected Goals on Target), which can be used as a tool to measure a goalkeeper’s performance.
The stats website states: “We can use it to highlight the goalkeepers who have under-conceded considering the quality of the shots on target they’ve faced. This can be seen by calculating the number of goals prevented (calculated as xGOT conceded from shots on target faced, minus goals conceded).
“This metric allows us to distinguish between the goalkeepers who are making high quality saves and those whose save counts may have been inflated by easy, low-quality shots.”
Baxter has faced an xGOT of 29.58 so far in League One (1.56 per 90 mins) and Luke Southwood 20.71 (1.15 per 90). And that equates to a total goals prevented of minus 0.4 in Baxter’s case and minus 4.3 in Southwood’s case.
PASS ACCURACY
Baxter’s pass accuracy has been 71.4 per cent so far in the league with 75 long balls played at a success rate of 29 per cent.
Southwood has had a 62.9 per cent pass accuracy across the season with 107 accurate long balls and a long-ball accuracy of 31.7 per cent.
Unsurprisingly, both goalkeepers are rated in the top seven in League One for the number of accurate short passes played per 90 minutes, with Baxter fourth at 20.7 per game and Southwood seventh at 16.3.
And again, it won’t come as a shock that neither goalkeeper troubles the top 20 for longer passes per game – Southwood 22nd with 5.9 per game and Baxter 29th with 3.9.
